Researching Crimes of the State

From types to causes

• Part II (Lectures 5–9): different types of crimes of the state
  • Genocide, disappearances and torture, carceral violence, gender-based crimes, etc.
• Part III (starting today): how different factors shape crimes of the state
  • Autocracy, democracy, information and propaganda
• Today is a bridge: a research demonstration connecting both parts
• You’re going to go through a survey instrument I’m currently building with a colleague
• You won’t be quizzed on this, but I still would love your participation
• Important: your responses are not being collected
• This is a pedagogical demonstration, not data collection
• Go through it as if you were a real respondent!

Your reactions to the survey

• Before anything else: how long did it take you? any typos or bugs?

The puzzle: why would a state publicize its violence?

• States have historically tried to hide or obscure their use of violence
  • Disappearances, secret detention sites, deniable paramilitaries
  • Payne and Abouharb: forced disappearance as a strategic shift away from visible torture
• Some governments now deliberately film and amplify state violence on social media
  • Against stigmatized targets: foreigners, alleged criminals, gang members, drug traffickers
• For discussion: Why do you think that is the case?

Nayib Bukele’s El Salvador

• President Nayib Bukele took office in 2019 with a background in advertising
• One of the highest homicide rates in the world through the 2010s, driven by gang violence
• Spring 2022: mass roundups of tens of thousands of young men
• Arrests and poor conditions were not hidden, they were produced as content
  • Viral videos of mass arrests, packed prisons
  • Homicides fell, but some evidence suggests secret pacts were made with gangs
  • Bukele became one of the most popular elected presidents in the world

The U.S. case: lethal boat strikes

The experiment

• We will recruit ~4,500 U.S. adults and randomly assigned them to one of three conditions:
  1. Forced exposure: real post of a U.S. military strike on an alleged drug-trafficking boat
  2. Natural feed: scroll through a simulated Instagram feed where the video appears
  3. Control: no video
• What do you think are the purposes of each treatment arm?
• Which one did you get?
  • Let’s count: how many 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th years in each group?
• Random assignment means any differences across groups can be attributed to the video

Outcomes of interest

• Main outcome: support for the U.S. government killing suspected drug traffickers
• Secondary outcomes: support for other punitive or illiberal policies
  • Military action without congressional approval
  • Deportation without trial
  • The death penalty
  • …and more
• The core question: does seeing publicized state violence make people more supportive of it?

Publicized state violence: why it matters

Any final questions or reactions to the project?

• What would you change about the survey?
• Why do you think this is important for the class?
• Can you think of other cases of this? What about possible complications or counterexamples?

• States reveal violence when they think visibility helps them
• This connects directly to Part III:
  • How do regime types shape crimes of the state?
  • How does media and propaganda shape crimes of the state?
• Monday: does autocracy produce more state violence?